The State Of It - 2021

So Italy ended 2020 without that long awaited win. But with the Six Nations (hopefully) just around the corner, my question is 'how likely are they to pull it off in the 2021 championship?'. The Italian national team enters the new year in a vastly different state than when it entered 2020. Whether you think he’s done well or not, there is no denying that Franco Smith’s short reign has wildly changed the landscape of the men’s squad. His willingness to blood young players at the highest level has resulted in the unearthing of undeniable talents. It has also provided him with a much larger pool of internationally experienced players, compared with when he first took over. Meanwhile the two derby matches between Zebre and Benetton have confirmed a massive shift in power from the once dominant Benetton over to their Parma rivals. The franchises will have provided Smith with plenty to think about but before that lets take a look at the nation as a whole.

National

While a win has so far eluded Smith during his reign, I think he has to be applauded for his willingness to persevere with his long term vision for Italy. At the end of the World Cup, with the imminent retirement of their most experienced players (Parisse, Zanni, Ghiraldini & Budd), the Italian squad was looking light in terms of depth and experience. Through blooding young players throughout the end of the Six Nations and Autumn Nations cup he has created a much larger pool of players to choose from. Young players like Stephen Varney clearly have the talent to be vital in Italy’s future so why not give them the experience early? A great example of this is in the second row. Without Zanni and Budd Italy looked certain to rely upon Federico Ruzza & David Sisi who, while gaining vital experience under Conor O’Shea, had only just reached double figures in terms of international caps. Second row has become such a vital position in the modern game as seen by the position being highest on most valuable players in both the premiership and Pro14 (image above right). Smith needed to increase depth. Niccolo Cannone and Marco Lazzaroni have stepped in and shown a physicality that at their young age is very impressive. While they often seemed more effective in the first half than the second, I noticed that Smith often kept them on the pitch late into the second half. It felt like he was almost pushing them or testing them. It is easy to see that Italy have a problem staying in the game past the 60th minute and I wonder if pushing these players, along with Danilo Fischetti and Giosue Zilocchi, is a way to get them used to playing longer at a higher intensity. Also in second row news, David Sisi is now back from injury and pushing for a place in the starting lineup. He has grown into a leader at Zebre and has put in two consecutive man of the match performances. Ruzza adds a different dimension and may well be effective off the bench while Riccardo Favretto & Cristian Stoian have also impressed as line out operators. Within a year the options at second-row look far better and vitally there is more competition for places.

Like with Sisi at Zebre, there have also been opportunities to gain captaincy experience at Benetton in Dewaldt Duvanage’s absence. The loss of Duvanage to injury along with the loss of experienced players like Zanni, Budd, Fuser and Bigi has left Benetton with a lack of leaders. It has been interesting to see Kieran Crowley’s faith in youngsters like Giovanni Pettenelli and Michele Lamaro to lead the side. It was a surprise to see such young players stepping into the captaincy role but both Benetton and National side obviously see these players as future leaders so why not get them experience early. Both are knocking at the door for the highly contested spot in the back row and once Giovanni Licata rejoins that competition the Italian back row will be looking very powerful for years to come.

In the backs the emergence of players like Varney, Paulo Garbisi and Marco Zanon have also got me hopeful. At such a young age they are already showing themselves to be comfortable at the highest level. While Varney and Garbisi were the obvious surprises of the autumn, it was Zanon that really impressed me. His ability to get over the game line is so important if Italy are going to compete with teams. It feels like without Jake Polledri Italy are going to be heavily reliant on Zanon’s ball carrying and I hope that he can stay fit and put a string of performances together to really stamp his mark at international level. With Smith seeming keen to stick with two playmakers (most likely Garbisi and Carlo Canna) Italy will need a big ball carrying number 13. While Federico Mori has been deployed on the wing I think it is clear 13 is his best position and one which he has been plying his trade at Zebre. Also I have to mention Paolo Odogwu of Wasps whose 6 tries in 8 matches has got international selectors interested. Odogwu would be a perfect fit for this style of play and is available to play for England, Nigeria or Italy. Lets hope that Minozzi and Masi can have a word in his ear.

Pro14

At a club level fortunes have well and truly flipped between the two Pro14 teams. Benetton are on a barren run of form, despite an incredible (for a number of reasons) win against Stade Francais. Meanwhile Zebre have notched up back to back wins against their Italian rivals while also impressing in Europe with a win against Brive and draw against Bayonne. But with these wins I ask myself the question “are these results that much to celebrate?”. No disrespect to Bayonne or Brive but they are teams that are competing towards the bottom end of French rugby while Zebre are currently the best team in Italy. With the French team now looking like an awakening giant of the game, it could be said that while Italian rugby is improving the other nations are improving much faster. I however would argue that you only have to take a look at the ages of Bayonne (1904) and Brive (1910) to see that Zebre (2012) are making giant leaps for a team so young. In around a decade Zebre have turned into a competitive European outfit playing an attractive style of rugby. The hope when Zebre first joined the Pro14 was that they could provide a link for young players to make their way into the national setup. This certainly seems to be working with a much larger proportion of the national team being made up of Zebre players.

Benetton on the other hand have failed to win in this seasons Pro14 and look far away from the team that made it to the play-offs. Despite this it came as a surprise to learn that Benetton have decided to replace Kieran Crowley as head coach when the season finishes. It cannot be underestimated how much he has helped develop the club as a whole and in particular their playing style. But with the loss of many older players and the new blood coming through it seems like a good time to end his cycle. The decision on who replaces him will be a key indicator of where Benetton rugby are looking to go in the coming years.

We realised from the two derby games that Pierre Bruno is now one of the most in-form Italian players and has to be on Franco Smith’s radar. Bruno has been scoring tries for fun and had a great battle in both derbies against Monty Ioane proving that his defensive game has improved. Bruno’s impressive form and Monty Ioane’s recent international debut show how depth on the wing has also improved since Smith took over. When I wrote a blogpost last January, Italy only had 3 options of out and out wingers which were Bellini, Esposito and Sarto. Now they have Monty Ioane into the fold, Bruno pushing for his debut, Mattia Bellini looking accomplished, Jacapo Trulla with caps, Eduardo Padovani back from injury and Luca Sperandio back into contention. With this depth also comes competition and competition for places can push a player to improve just as much as a coach can. 

Top10

Players like Bruno and Luca Petrozzi show the massive improvement that has occurred at the domestic level. A decade ago players like Bruno (24) and Petrozzi (25) might have been lost by the system, but the Top10 has given them a second chance at making it into one of the Pro14 teams. The Top10 has not only provided the perfect stepping stone for young players coming through the ranks but also made sure talents who blossom later aren’t missed. 

Italy are one of the few top rugby nations that don’t regularly teach rugby in schools. The Federation's academy in Brescia has allowed the very best young players to focus on learning the game and many that make it to the national team have graduated from there. But it still means many player’s development will be way behind players from other nations where they have been taught rugby from an early age. The Top10 is slowly allowing gifted athletes who may be a bit behind in their rugby development time to learn the ins and outs of the game through higher level competition.

Of course it has to be mentioned that Conor O’Shea set the roots for all this during his years at the helm. His work to redesign the structure of Italian rugby seems to be working at a faster pace than first thought. Franco Smith has continued this development by providing an open door for plenty of players who he thinks are ready for test experience. Players like Stoian, Mori and Trulla have been brought straight into the national setup while still being permit players from Top10 teams. Both clubs seem to be working well with the Federation, gaining valuable depth from the Top10 while also increasing their depth of internationally experienced players. 

Expectations

It is unrealistic to see Italy competing towards the top of the table this Six Nations but fans will be keen to see an improvement on recent years. Below is what I consider to be the grading of possible outcomes to Italy’s campaign:

Excellent - To get a win and avoid the wooden spoon. Every year that goes by without an Italian win increases the calls for a relegation system that could possibly bankrupt Italian rugby. To qualm these voices Italy need to win a game in the Six Nations and prove that they are worthy of the competition. With a couple of bonus points to add to the win it is possible that Italy could avoid the wooden spoon for the first time since 2015.

Good - To consistently compete in games and pick up 2 or 3 bonus points. Italy’s tendency to fade away in games has meant only 2 bonus points in the 25 matches since bonus points were introduced. If Italy are able to get a few bonus points along with some impressive performances by breakthrough players then the competition can be seen as an step in the right direction. An added bonus would be to finish the tournament with no further injuries to key players.

Average - To have the usual match or two go to the wire but eventually pick up the wooden spoon with 0 to 1 bonus points. For the last 5 years Italy have shown glimpses of excellent play and have pushed teams hard only to tire in the last 20 minutes. It may be that it is still too early for the young team to make an impact but a few stand out solo performances will give fans something to savour. 

Bad - No wins, no bonus points and a couple of thrashings. Italy desperately need to start looking competitive and at the moment being competitive at home isn’t enough. They need to start pushing teams away from home and stop conceding so many tries. If Smith’s philosophy is still leaving the Italian’s points difference less than -80 then question’s will start being asked. Italy haven't finished with a points different of over -80 since 2013. An injury to one or more of the key players would also be a disaster. Despite the depth that Smith has been working on it is still imperative that Italy have as many of their best players in the starting 15. With Polledri, Licata, Michele Campagnaro & Marco Riccioni already out they can’t afford many more injuries.